I picked the Heat to beat Atlanta in 6 games, before losing to Cleveland in 6 games at the start of the playoffs. Well, another prediction gone wrong, at least the first part of it.
So in danger of jinxing the Heat again, I'll offer this prediction: The World won't be watching LeBron James Sunday. They'll be watching Heat-Hawks Game 7.
Heat fans take note, because I've gotten too many calls from people asking "So this series is over, right?"
1. Miami is at home- The Heat were 28-13 at home, 15-26 on the road in the regular season. And all the factors that ignite a team at home, rub off this team any more.
2. Dwyane Wade is getting healthier- Watching GM 5, to me, DWade's back spasms were not as much of a factor as he probably thought they were. Hence why he was playing very tentative in the 1st half, and much more aggressive as the game went on. And he should also be more of a factor on defense, an area non-existent for the Heat in GM 5.
3. Guess who's not healthy?- Besides Luther Head and the Moon-man.....sorry this is a pro-Heat blog. Al Horford has been ruled out of tonight's game. And Marvin Williams is still out. That leaves the Hawks, a depth-challenged team to begin with, boasting a lineup of Bibby, Johnson, Smith, Evans, and Solomon Jones with Flip Murray and Zaza Pachulia coming off the bench. Frightening.
4. The Heat will kick Atlanta's ass physically- I've read plenty of voices, including some I respect tremendously, say that it would be unwise for Miami to try and send a message to Josh Smith. Sorry still not buying it. Look, they don't need to start the 2009 version of the Brawl at the Palace. But there can still be a major benefit to a message-sending hard/flagrant foul. The crowd will go nuts. The Hawks, an extremely soft team, will become tentative. And not that I'm endorsing intentional injuries, but if it happens, then its minus three Atlanta starters. And worse comes to worse, the Heat can win a Game 7 without Jamaal Magloire if that's what it boils down to.
So you're telling me that in a series where both teams are very evenly matched, that I shouldn't be picking Miami to win in a backs against the wall scenario, when they are at home, with a healthier playing against a Hawks team without two starters? Not going there.
Miami 101, Atlanta 93.
-As for Hawks old-school announcer Steve Holman, the most vilified person in Miami since Fidel Castro, calling the Heat "street thugs" and Erik Spoelstra "Little Spoesltra" is a little much. But as he said on Dan LeBatard's show yesterday(hear the interview HERE), it's his shtick. Basically, he's a wanna-be Johnny Most who did the same thing and never took hear for years in Boston. So I'm not as outraged as the rest of Heat Nation. But he isn't exactly painting an accurate picture of the basketball game for those who can't see it.
-Picture is courtesy of Sun-Sentinel.com.
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