Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Don't Pick An Upset Just to Pick An Upset....



I've strayed from making wholesale predictions on the NBA Playoffs until now. But I need to step in to feed a little reality check to those that are really prognosticating an Orlando upset over Cleveland.

I mean, seriously?? Yes I know Orlando is more talented than Detroit and Atlanta, but what part of eight straight double digit wins was not convincing to you? Even I thought the Pistons and Hawks had a chance to swipe a game.

The Magic's number top two individual defenders are Courtney Lee and Mickael Pietrus. One is a 6-5 shooting guard, the other is an undersized 3. What makes you think they can turn LeBron into a jump shooter?

And while those two guys are trying to lock up King James, who is gonna guard Mo Williams? Rafer Alston? Sure J.J. Reddick actually played like he cared against Ray Allen last round, but can he do it two rounds in a row coming off a grueling seven game set?

And let's look at how the Cavs match up versus Orlando. We know that as dominant as Dwight Howard can be, the Magic offense functions best with their pick and roll game, and letting D-12 get points off dunks and putbacks. Easier said than done versus the No. 1 rated defense in the league. Plus, the Cavs have the numerous bodies(Z, Joe Smith, Wallace, Sideshow) that the Celtics didn't have to throw at the big guy. I don't see Hedo Turkoglu having a great series versus LeBron. And Cleveland can afford to throw Mo Williams on Orlando's revolving No. 2 guard, and put Delonte West on Nelson.

Bottom line, I'll stick with my Cleveland probably drops a game in this series. Which means it could easily be another sweep. But I'll be surprised if Mike Bianchi is covering games at this time next week.




Now to a series that will have drama, the Lakers-Nuggets West title. Why? Because, with the giant turd that Andrew Bynum has been this playoffs(5.6 pts, 3.8 rbs), Lamar Odom's back acting up, and Phil Jackson taking an I don't care pill, are the Lakers really much more superior than Denver? Phillip is just asking for Mr. Big Shot to go nuts against the Artist formerly known as Derek Fisher. The Nuggets have several options(Dahntay Jones, Kenyon Martin, some Chauncey) to throw at Kobe.

But then there is my favorite part of the NBA: The officiating! Take my word, it will be ridiculously one-sided. Like as bad as the Sacramento series one-sided. You can drum up all the LeBron-Carmelo matchup carries intrigue all you want, but I'm not buying it. And I don't think David Stern is either.

The Lakers problems are more legitimate than just disinterest. The Nuggets should give them a hell of a series. But I don't think they can overcome four games on the road, and potentially playing 8 on 5 at times. Lakers in 7.

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